There is a risk of Russia becoming more isolated and aggressive, and in the long-term perspective, it may once again constitute a security threat. This is stated in a recent report from FOI.

The development in Russia is worrying, say Jan Leijonhielm and other FOI researchers (Jan T. Knoph, Robert L. Larsson, Ingmar Oldberg, Carolina Vendil Pallin and Wilhelm Unge) in a report on Russian military capability in a ten-year perspective. The report has already been discussed in Swedish media, but is now published on FOI website where it can be downloaded.

The development of democracy has not only levelled off, but has also declined under Putin’s reign and authoritarian elements are gaining in strength, the FOI researchers write. Russia is not on the right track. In practice, Russia is once again a one-party state and the stability created by Putin is a mirage, both in a political and economic sense, the report shows. It is neither stable as a society nor predictable in its actions.

The report is the fourth in a series on Russian military capability that have been conducted for the Swedish Defence Commission and commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Defence with the aim to analyse current trends of Russian development in order to draw conclusions on Russian military development in a ten-year perspective. The analysis is also put into the context of earlier ten-year assessments. It follows present trends and points out potential ruptures and discontinuities. As in earlier reports, democratic, social, economic and political factors that influence Russia’s military capability are taken into account.

The conclusion is that Russia presently does not pose any military threat to Sweden, but the danger lies in the lack of democratic development in combination with an obsession of security. The decade-long downsizing of the Russian Armed Forces has now definitely come to a halt. Arms procurement is still small, but is rapidly increasing, while the number and complexity of exercises are significantly increasing, albeit from a low level. It is likely that Russian military capability will increase considerably in a ten-year perspective. Today, the military and security sectors make up almost half of the budget expenses. At the same time poverty and HIV-related problems are largely neglected, the report shows.

The report further states that Putin focuses on making Russia strong, independent and united – not on building democracy. Freedom of the media is gradually curbed and strong elements of self-censorship emerge. Its foreign policy has become more confident and self-assured. Russia’s status as a great power is always stressed.

Economically, Russia is a less developed country whose income primarily is based on commodities and raw materials. High oil prices have brought large revenues to the state, but oil and gas have also been used as tools for exerting pressure on former Soviet republics. The capacity to do this is continuously strengthened, especially towards weak states in the CIS.

In an interview in FOI’s Framsyn Magazine, Jan Leijonhielm comments on the results of the report by saying “We have to keep in mind that Russia has only had 12-14 years to develop democracy. If we compare the situation now with the way things used to be, there is an incredible difference, but it is very serious that Russia is moving in the wrong direction.”

Links

Extensive English summary:
“Russian Military Capability in a Ten-year perspective – Problems and Trends in 2005” [pdf]

Full report in Swedish:
“Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv – problem och trender 2005” [pdf]

Energy report in English:
”Russia’s Strategic Commodities – Energy and Metals as Security Levers” [pdf]

For more information, contact:
Robert Larsson, researcher and security policy expert, +46 8 5550 3760, +46 70 374 6294
Jan Leijonhielm, project manager and security policy expert, +46 8 5550 3752, +46 70 927 7260
Johan Axell, Director of Communication, +46 70 277 0362, johan.axell@foi.se