Sweden needs to step up its monitoring of developments in the region in view of the strong growth of interest being shown by powerful actors in areas such as territorial boundaries, access to energy resources and possible new maritime trade routes.

“Just now, developments in the Arctic are moving rapidly regarding most of the factors that we have studied,” says Niklas Granholm, a senior analyst at FOI and editor of the report in question. “This also means that developments in the region can swiftly take an unexpected turn. Our analysis of possible problems shows that it is becoming increasingly necessary for Sweden to step up its monitoring of developments in the High North over the years immediately ahead.

The study addresses economic as well as territorial, climatological and strategic factors. The report also focuses on the interests and policies of the various littoral states.

The extent to which the arctic ice will continue to retreat is difficult to forecast but the phenomenon is opening up the High North as an arena both for the extraction of oil and gas and for the opening of possible new maritime trade routes.

 “The strategic importance of the polar region is again increasing and this in turn is likely to exert a pressure for change on the Nordic countries in the coming years. For example, collaboration between Norway and Sweden in the procurement of defence equipment also needs to be seen in the light of the major changes taking place in the High North,” Niklas Granholm concludes.