A preliminary report in April last year attracted a lot of attention, together with an international conference in October 2007.

The final report has now been published. In it the authors have carried out a consequential analysis with the aid of two attack scenarios, which shows that successful military action aimed at substantially delaying Iran’s nuclear energy programme can be regarded as a failure from other perspectives. The military and hardline elements in the Iranian regime would probably be strengthened. Military action would reinforce the geopolitical power game and competition in the Middle East and the Gulf region, thereby adding to existing conflicts, they write. Moreover, if Iran were to be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons, the effects would be wide-ranging, the authors add.

The report does not contain an assessment of the likelihood of an attack on Iran.

The full report can be downloaded under Related Links.