Ahead of the election in South Africa a new political landscape has emerged, with cracks in the hitherto solid ANC façade, the formation of the breakaway Congress of the People (COPE), a harder tone in public pronouncements, demands for better social services, and high expectations on Jacob Zuma – ANC party leader and the people’s man. In the longer term, though, there is a risk of trouble if these expectations are not fulfilled.

“The breakaway of COPE from the ANC is important – but not because they have any real chance of winning this election,” says Camilla Elowson, FOI analyst specialising on South Africa. On the contrary, the split itself marks a change in the political landscape. The ANC’s unifying strength as a party of liberation and a natural candidate for leadership is beginning to wear off and COPE has brought about some degree of unrest, thus already making itself felt. The question now is whether the ANC will, in the final analysis, see COPE’s breakaway as being a positive force for reform, or whether they will choose to take a more authoritative grip on political power.

The election campaign has also given rise to some incidents involving violence and the level of aggression has increased, a situation to which the new political dynamic has contributed.

“But violence is unfortunately nothing new in South Africa, either generally in the community or in association with political elections,” Camilla Elowson continues. “Up to the present, however, the violence has been confined to a predictable and, by South African standards, manageable level.”

In the longer term there is perhaps greater cause for worry. The majority of the parties seem to agree that the election is about being able to deliver more useful and effective social services. In a country with high unemployment, a high level of criminality, widespread corruption and an element of looking after “one’s own” when making appointments in the administration, there is a great deal of dissatisfaction with what the ANC have so far been able to deliver. In the wider world there is also a worry that South Africa will now step back from playing its active foreign policy role in Africa despite repeated promises that nothing will change under Zuma.

“Zuma is presented as the people’s man, in contrast to his predecessor Mbeki who was seen more as “Africa’s man” but who focused too little on socio-economic improvements for his own people,” says Camilla. “Zuma’s more populist image awakens peoples’ hopes, but also raises questions as to whether it will be possible to fulfil promises of a more effective administration and better schools, health care and employment opportunities. Budget restrictions need to be respected and then, at the same time, there is of course the global economic crisis. If Zuma and the ANC do not succeed in delivering what they promise, there is a serious risk of social frustration in the longer term – and with that, an increased risk of the outbreak of violence in the community.

FOI’s Africa Group is currently engaged in a number of studies relating to Southern Africa. Apart from the long-term effects of developments in South Africa, including external and security-related consequences, analysis also covers Zimbabwe and the role the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the future challenges that it faces.