The situation facing Zimbabwe is critical - in humanitarian, financial and political terms. Before the end of the two-year transition period, the requirements to democratically appoint a replacement for Mugabe and the coalition government have to be satisfied. If not, Zimbabwe faces the threat of disunion and escalated violence.

'The current situation is critical,' says Justin MacDermott, a Zimbabwe analyst at FOI. 'There are not going to be many more opportunities that allow the rest of the world to get involved, beyond humanitarian efforts, to break the negative trends in the country. An important measure is to initiate local administration, which involves health care, clean water, sanitary conditions and financial influx.'

The coalition government, and the underlying political agreement, is far from a beneficial solution and numerous forces could demolish the fragile process. Without room for reform-friendly agents to act, however, the risk of aggravating the situation increases. The question of a finding long-term political solution to take over from the now 85-year-old Mugabe has to be solved in order to counteract the population's increasing frustration and the risk of the military igniting a violent power struggle. The rest of the world needs to find a way of helping the country break away from the negative trends.

'A key area to reform is the security sector, which is subject to severe control by Mugabe and the ZANU-PF,' Justin MacDermott explains. 'More democratic control and less confusion over the party, the state, the military and the police is needed. This will affect other sectors as administration is currently "Zanufied" and militarized in many areas. However, without local ownership there is a risk that all reform attempts will fail.'
The security-related issues need a sustainable solution for long-term positive development. At the same time, reforms within this sector are the most challenging. There are only a limited number of decent need analyses available  - and the question of external involvement is always extremely sensitive.

Background: At present, The Africa Group at FOI is carrying out a number of studies related to southern Africa. In addition to Zimbabwe, the group is working on analysing the long-term effects of development in South Africa, including matters of foreign policy and political security, and the role and future challenges facing the regional organisation SADC.