The chaos in domestic policy, relations with India, and the Afghanistan-Pakistan War are decisive to the future of the country, according to researcher John Rydqvist in the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) Report Strategisk utblick 2009 – säkerhetspolitisk forsränning [Strategic Outlook 2009].

Since the beginning of the 1980s the war in Afghanistan has been one of the foremost reasons for the complex situation in Pakistan. The Soviet invasion in 1979, the American economic counter-offensive, and the intervention of other countries led to the further militarization of the Pashtun clan society. A professional military class that made its living on the war economy arose. The border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan became a refuge for terrorist groups harbouring regional and global ambitions.

The historical antagonisms in the region also make it improbable that India and Pakistan will develop nuclear weapons. Even though Pakistan has improved its control mechanisms, the fact that it is in possession of nuclear weapons is a source of international concern. The greatest fear is that fundamentalist groups outside of or within the Establishment will gain access to the arsenal of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, territorial conflicts with India have caused separatist groups in Kashmir to complicate the security situation. Conflicting ethnic, religious, ideological and economic interests are aggravating the situation in Pakistan.

John Rydqvist describes not only the historical course of events, but also the domestic policy challenges that face Pakistan. He believes that it is a weak state at risk of collapse. A partial dissolution of Pakistan would have devastating consequences for the stability of the region. These conditions create dim prospects for the future. 
 
Read the article in Swedish “Blir storm orkan i Pakistan?” by John Rydqvist in the report Strategisk utblick 2009 – säkerhetspolitisk forsränning?