Russia is pursuing a tough energy policy and is expected to toughen this line still further as an instrument of power vis-à-vis its neighbours. So writes analyst Jakob Hedenskog at FOI in the report Strategic Outlook 2009, subtitled Whitewater rafting for security policy.

Dmitry Medvedev has inherited the energy policy as an area of high priority from Vladimir Putin. Russia is expected to strengthen its energy exports and, through a confrontational approach, to discourage neighbouring countries from seeking other alternatives. The post-Soviet area is regarded by Russia as an exclusive sphere of interest in which the influence of the western powers is to be minimised. This policy has strong popular support in Russia, and so Georgia could very well once again become the target for Russian aggression.

Even though the Russian economy has been weakened by the financial crisis, the country is in a relatively strong position economically compared with its neighbours. However, due to lack of investment, increased domestic consumption and insufficient prospecting, there is a risk of an energy shortfall. Income from energy exports is likely to fall and so reduce the rate of growth. Inflation, dependence on raw materials, low productivity, the negative rate of population growth and the lack of foreign investment now mean that Russia is not as competitive in the world market as had been expected.
Despite its considerable funds, Russia is not in a position to withstand a long-lasting economic crisis. The effects of the crisis in the global economy have been more severe than the country’s leadership had initially expected. China’s economic influence in central Asia has also grown at Russia’s expense. Russia now appears to face a fundamental choice between either giving priority to its ambitions as a great power in its own neighbourhood or adapting to the economic realities.

Read the article in Swedish “Ryssland i skruvstädet – stormaktsambitioner eller ekonomiska realiteter?” by Jakob Hedenskog in the report Strategisk utblick 2009 – säkerhetspolitisk forsränning?