The hope of finding major oil, gas and mineral deposits has led to a heightened involvement in the Arctic. Climate changes, the development of new navigable channels, and territorial disputes place demands on Sweden to take a stance on the current issues. Who is going to control the new channels? How is safety at sea going to be regulated? How are national claims going to be handled? Will UN’s convention on the Law of the Sea become the basis for agreements? What might the consequences of a major environmental or shipwreck be? These are some of the issues on which Sweden must take a stance.

All of the Arctic states, including Sweden, are affected both directly and indirectly by changes in the area. Dramatic effects of climate change would generate new and unexpected developments. Unexploited oil, gas and mineral reserves will affect future energy and mineral prices. According to Niklas Granholm, Sweden must therefore define its interests in the Arctic.

“For a long time it was not necessary to put the Arctic at the top of our agenda, but things are developing quickly there now and it is difficult to foresee what is really going to happen,” says Niklas Granholm.

Future prospects for the Arctic also put a focus on security policy. Niklas Granholm claims that Russian and US strategies are central to developments. The choice between a confrontation policy with increased military presence and a policy that is more cooperation-oriented will be decisive for the development of the region. Canada, Norway and Denmark also have major potential to influence the agenda.

Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain, China, Japan, and South Korea have also shown, in different ways, a greater interest in the Arctic. China, for example, is planning on building larger icebreakers and has already applied for observation status in the Arctic Council. Both the EU and NATO are in the process of formulating a view on Arctic issues. There is a lot at stake and it will take a long time before anyone knows what a new and different Arctic will look like.