The report “Brussels without Muscles” describes the internal and external factors that pose challenges to the EU’s ability to assert itself as a strong actor vis-à-vis Russia. The external factors, such as conflicts of interest and the structure of the European political system, serve to reinforce the EU’s internal problems. The current multipolar structure of European politics reduces the scope for cooperation that the EU needs for its energy security. The gas supply issue, moreover, falls within a number of different policy areas (energy, external relations and security policy) in which the Commission and the member states have different responsibilities.

“A key cause of the EU’s weak position in its relationship with Russia over gas supply is the interplay that exists between external and internal factors. Above all, it is about conflicts of interest between the EU and Russia on the European neighbourhood, how cooperation should be built up and how one does business, in combination with the EU’s own internal problems,” says FOI analyst David Harriman.

The situation is made worse by the fact that within the EU there are differing views on Russian energy policy. Other key factors are the lack of transparency and competition in the gas sector allied to the fact that certain EU countries are more dependent on Russian gas than others. Relations between France, Germany and Russia are also of crucial importance to the EU’s energy security.

“Through the Lisbon Treaty, France and Germany gain more extensive powers within the EU. Combined with the residual conflicts of interest between the parties, and the still divided views held within the EU on Russian energy policy, the prospects of the Lisbon Treaty actually strengthening the EU’s power position vis-à-vis Russia are limited,” says David Harriman.