Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective: Problems and Trends in 2005

Summary and conclusions from a study for the Swedish Ministry of Defence
(click on the cover to the left and download it as a pdf-file)

Introduction

Below are outlined a brief summary and the main conclusions of a 300-page study issued in Swedish, Rysk militär förmåga i ett tioårsperspektiv – problem och trender2005 (Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective – Problems and Trends in 2005). The report was commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Defence and printed in 2005. The following authors participated in the report: Jan T. Knoph, Robert L. Larsson, Jan Leijonhielm, Ingmar Oldberg, Wilhelm Unge and Carolina Vendil Pallin. The report is the fourth in a series on Russian military capability that have been conducted for the Swedish Defence Commission and the Swedish Ministry of Defence by the Russia/FSU study group at the Department for Security Policy and Strategy at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI). The earlier reports were issued in 1998, 2000 and 2002. English summaries of these reports were issued in 1999 and 2003 (no summary is available for the report issued in 2000).

The aim of the report is to analyse current trends of Russian development in order to draw conclusions on Russian military development in a ten-year perspective. The analysis is also put into the context of earlier ten-year assessments. In doing so, an effort is made to follow present trends as well as to find ruptures and discontinuities. As in earlier reports, democratic, social, economic and political factors that influence Russia’s military capability are taken into account. The project also draws on findings in recent studies performed at FOI, for example on Russia’s strategic commodities and on Russia’s relations with NATO and the EU.

Although primarily written for defence and foreign policy makers, the report is also directed to readers with an interest in current Russian affairs.

Stockholm, June 2005

Jan Leijonhielm
Project manager

Download the summary as a pdf-file