Russia's Strategic Commodities

Energy and Metals as Security Levers

FOI-R--1346--SE
November 2004
ISSN 1650-1942

Jan Leijonhielm and Robert L. Larsson

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Abstract
The report aims to analyse Russias usage of its strategic commodities in a security policy context. For this purpose Russian production, consumption, reserves and exports etc. of five strategic commodities: oil, gas, aluminium, nickel and palladium, are assessed. These commodities have been chosen mainly for their importance in a supplyperspective for importing countries, but also for the Russian political leaderships possibility to control commodity flows, directly or indirectly. The report holds the concept of dependence as of special importance, especially dependence on Russian commodities by CIS and European countries, primarily in a long-time perspective. This also encompasses a description of the political background to Russian views on economic security and strategic reserves.

The authors further attempt to analyse Russias possible manipulation of international commodity markets and thereafter proceed to investigate historically known examples of Russian use of strategic commodities in its relations to Georgia, Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova. The authors find that in all of these cases, Russia has tried to use oil and gas as political levers, albeit with limited success, as far as is known. The report concludes, after discussing mental, political, economic and structural factors that Russia within every field analysed continuously strengthens its ability to use commodity policy as a security lever.