Afghanistan and Central Asia after September 11 - The Security-Political Development

FOI-R--0821--SE
March 2003
ISSN 1650-1942

Emma Sandström

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Abstract
The security-political situation has changed considerably in both Afghanistan and the post-Soviet Central Asian states in connection with the Operation Enduring Freedom and the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The international anti-terrorist coalitions presence has increased the interest also from other states for the region security-politically, foreign politically and economically. The external security-political situation has improved in the region during the year 2002, but the relations between several of the countries in the region remain tense and there is a constant risk for local conflicts across the borders that might escalate. The renewed strength of the narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan to Central Asia during 2002 further heightens the border tensions.

However, the primary threats against the stability in the Central Asian states and Afghanistan are internal and this development has grown worse during the year 2002. Despite the increase in international economic aid to the region in 2002, the economic prospects remain generally poor for the majority of the people in the region, which exacerbates the discontent and antagonism against the regimes in the region. Consequently, the region remains unstable and there are many threats against a peaceful development despite the improved external security-political conditions during 2002.

Executive Summary
The security-political situation has changed considerably in both Afghanistan and the post-Soviet Central Asian states in connection with the Operation Enduring Freedom and the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The international anti-terrorist coalitions’ presence has increased the interest for the region also from other states – security-politically, foreign politically and economically. This report describes how the development during the year 2002 has affected the prospects for stability or instability in the six countries as well as in the entire region. The factors affecting these prospects are to a certain extent connected to the September 11 events and the ensuing Operation Enduring Freedom. However, there are also many internal factors that are not directly connected to the September 11 event that affects the prospects for stability or instability in the different countries and that consequently differ from country to country.

The external security-political situation has improved in the region during the year 2002, not least because of the increased international military presence in the area, even if the countries’ own military capabilities are still very weak. However, the relations between several of the countries in the region remain tense and there is a constant risk for local conflicts across the borders that might escalate. The renewed strength of the narcotics trafficking from Afghanistan to Central Asia during 2002 further heightens the border tensions. The risk for an open conflict between the external powers with conflicting interests in region have appeared less likely during 2002 due to the high stakes involved. Nevertheless, these countries – primarily represented by the United States, Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan – are to different extent interfering in the internal affairs of the countries in the region and have continuously manoeuvred to further their own interest in the region. Since these interests are often contradictory, the risk for a more hostile foreign political environment and even future conflicts over the influence in the region cannot be excluded.

However, the primary threats against the stability in the Central Asian states and Afghanistan are internal and this development has grown worse during the year 2002. Despite the increase in international economic aid to the region in 2002, the economic prospects remain generally poor for the majority of the people in the region, which exacerbates the discontent and antagonism against the regimes in the region. The Central Asian countries are governed by authoritarian regimes and the pressure on the opposition and the tight control exercised by these regimes over the society has either increased during 2002 or remained at an original high level. The civil war in Afghanistan has ended, but the divisions between various parts and factions in the country are strong and the tensions remain high with several local clashes that could easily escalate. Consequently, the countries in the region remain internally unstable – even though the degree varies between the different countries – and there are many threats against a peaceful development despite the improved short-term external security-political conditions during 2002.