Russia and Belarus closer to a union
Russia and Belarus’s presidents are expected to sign a package of so-called union state programmes. These aim to deepen cooperation between the two countries within the frame of a common union state. The FOI report, Endgame Belarus? Union State Integration Under Pressure, explains what that would mean.
Presidents Lukashenko and Putin playing ice hockey in Sochi the 15th of February 2019. Photo: Sergei Chirikov/Reuters.
The presidential elections in Belarus on 9 August 2020 and the subsequent protests of electoral fraud became a turning point for Alexander Lukashenko’s attempts to balance between East and West.
In the past, the West had turned a blind eye to parts of Belarus’s dictatorial politics, since the country could act as a buffer against Russia. But the brutal treatment of protesters and the imprisonment of opposition politicians led to Belarus’s being isolated and the imposition of sanctions by Western countries. The same countries no longer recognise Lukashenko as the country’s leader. According to the FOI report, there was thus no alternative for Lukashenko than to approach Russia, regardless of the price. This is happening now, including through several presidential summits.
“Thus, Belarus is also losing its opportunities to assert its own sovereignty and its room for manoeuvre in foreign policy,” says the report’s author, Jakob Hedenskog, Deputy Research Director at FOI.
Unprepared for independence
Russia and Belarus have always been close to each other, however. Belarus had never been an independent country until after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Unlike the Baltic States, for example, the country was relatively unprepared for independence and had major economic problems.
“That’s why Lukashenko was able to win the 1994 election on the promise of increased cooperation with Russia. The countries concluded an agreement to establish a Union State as early as the end of 1999. But it soon became apparent that they had different views of what that meant. While Belarus saw it as a union between two equal states, Russia viewed it as a way to reintegrate Belarus, in practice becoming absorbed by Russia,” says Jakob Hedenskog.
The presidents of the countries are expected to sign 28 so-called Union State programmes, primarily on economic issues.
“Vladimir Putin first wants to build economic integration, which among other things will create a common energy market. Political integration is further away," explains Jakob Hedenskog.
A pawn in the game
Belarus is constantly being pushed further and further away from the West. The migration crisis at the EU border and the fact that Belarus forced down a civilian aircraft flying a route between two EU countries have also contributed to increasingly cold relations.
“It’s reasonable to believe that Russia is behind some of what Belarus has been up to, with the aim of getting Lukashenko isolated. Belarus has become even more of a pawn than earlier in Russia’s conflict with the West,” states Jakob Hedenskog.
The realisation of a union state would create a deteriorating military strategic situation in Europe. It would also reduce the distance to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
“This could lead to tensions and increase the risk of incidents. It could also achieve an injection of Russia’s neo-imperialist policies into the local area,” says Jakob Hedenskog.