Simulation-based defense planning
2013-2015, project manager: Johan Schubert

The project develops a multi-criteria simulation-based approach for defense planning, where the concern is the best use of available resources in military ground warfare operations. With this method a decision maker can analyse alternative scenarios, where the concern is the best use of available resources in military operations. As the number of possible combination of parameter values is extremely large we use a data farming approach. The scenario is simulated using the FLAMES simulation framework. We develop a scenario model that represent various military units and contain basic logic for various components of each unit, such as platforms, sensors, cognition models governing the behaviour of different units, etc. We analyse large amounts of output data from the simulations with different values of the input data in order to find the best parameter values. With this methodology it is possible to find which combination of parameter ranges that leads to overall blue success.

Real-time simulation supporting effects-based planning
2008-2012, project manager: Johan Schubert

The project will develop and evaluate simulation based decision support for those planning processes that occur in Effects-based Planning (EBP) of an Effects-Based Approach to Operations (EBAO). The project cannot only focus on EBP however, but must also consider other parts of the EBAO process. It will particularly take into consideration the feed-back to EBP that can be done from Effects-based Assessment (EBA) during plan execution, EBE. This makes possible dynamic-replanning in EBP taking into account the collected information about the operation's status. The aim is to evaluate the plan, among other things to detect its weaknesses, and to understand its consequences. Important conditions for a good planning work are to find and use appropriate indicators and to make good Priority Intelligence Requirements.

Important issues: 1. Will the plan function well for a sufficient number of alternative chain of events? 2. Which resource conflicts can occur? 3. How large is the risk associated with different alternative developments? 4. How can one simulate group behavior, for example as emergent phenomena from a few properties of small groups?

The project works with three complementary directions: 1. Our main task is to develop decision support that supports planning and replanning within EBP using simulations. 2. We develop an analysis tool for morphological and statistical analysis of plans. 3. We model and simulate our own GOP and EBAO process in order to see if it is sufficiently fast. That is important information in replanning within EBP.

Tools for information management and analysis

2010-2012, project manager: Christian Mårtenson

The project will develop and test concept tools, methods and technology that support intelligence analysis and decision making in the Swedish Armed Forces. The tools are to handle and fuse both structured and unstructured information from human intelligence sources, open sources and from different kinds of sensors. Research questions to be addressed include: How should information be structured and tagged to allow efficient information sharing and retrieval? How should knowledge be represented to ensure source traceability and consistent uncertainty management? How can computer tools improve structured analytical techniques? How should information be visualized and interacted with in order to optimize analysis support?


M&S support for model-based capability development

The purpose of FOI’s activity in this field is to study how M&S (modelling and simulation) methods and techniques can be applied in the context of model-based development.

The aim is to create, within the framework of model-based capability development, M&S-based methods and tools which can be used in support of the Swedish Armed Forces’ (capability) development work. The purpose of the work is to support developers and users in the capability development process by facilitating the production, evaluation and use of models. In the longer term this work will benefit the efforts of the Armed Forces to achieve greater efficiency and higher quality though the use of M&S methods and techniques.

Synthetic actors

“Synthetic actors” is the term used for computer-generated components that simulate behaviours. They reflect and represent sufficiently accurately the behaviour exhibited by real persons. These models may include physiological factors but are primarily focused on behaviours in complex systems that bring together decision makers, vehicle operators, military personnel and civilians.

The main purpose of synthetic actors for the Swedish Armed Forces is to be able, based on an understanding of human behaviour, to develop ways of recreating this behaviour in simulations for training purposes and for further analysis. In step with the development of prototypes, there has also been a growing need to illuminate the possibilities and limitations of this work through reports and demonstrations. The effect of synthetic actors can be summarised as providing service personnel with stimulation, understanding and capability enhancement in a variety of applications.

Environmental modelling

FOI is working on the cataloguing of needs and possibilities regarding the provision and use of 3D environmental models and geographic information for a range of defence applications and, on this basis, identifying problem areas judged to be of particular relevance to areas for continuing investment.

This activity is conducted with funding from the Swedish Armed Forces and its purpose is to contribute enhanced expertise in the provision and use of 3D geographic information for use, for example, in various forms of simulation applications. This activity supports the Swedish Armed Forces’ capabilities and increases the possibility of identifying and resolving problems in this area.

FOI is continuously developing its competence in methods, techniques and tools for the production and provision of geographic information and 3D environmental models.


Gaming for conflict management and war

Military gaming is used today in support of planning, training, exercising and studies. The gaming is conducted either as structured discussions with the participation of experts or as computer simulations, or possibly as a combination of these two in which computer-based models or other data sources are used in support of the experts assessments.

Since 2010, FOI participates in the research project War Games, initiated by the Armed Forces, at the Defence College to explore the field of war games and the benefits of war games in the training of officers.

The project was transferred to a new project in 2011, Gaming for conflict management and war. To follow up the findings made in the War Games project, games as a method of study have been the subject of parts of the year's activities. The purpose has been to contribute to an increased ability of FOI to support the Defence Force's study activities by gathering and sharing good advice and experience regarding games as a method for younger operational analysts.