Russia is increasing its defence budget and has undertaken a comprehensive reorganisation of its Armed Forces. The country’s overall military capability could increase considerably over the period to 2020.
This is evident from FOI’s major report on Russia’s military capability.
- The capacity for mass mobilisation is being gradually reduced in order to create a defence that is smaller in size but better able to respond quickly to the military challenges that Russia might expect, in fact a rapid reaction defence, says Carolina Vendil Pallin, editor of the report on Russia’s military capability.
The Armed Forces that emerge at the other end of this process will look radically different compared to the military forces that Russia sent to war in Georgia in 2008.
The development of Russia’s military capability will be dependent, however, on economic, political, demographic and industry-related factors as well as the purely military goals.
- We also believe that the supply of personnel will continue to be a major problem for the Russian forces. They do not appear to have a realistic plan for how to attract and retain talented young men for their Armed Forces, says Carolina Vendil Pallin.
In a ten-year perspective Russia will remain dependent on nuclear arms – both strategic and tactical – for its military security. During the next two to five years Russia’s conventional Armed Forces will continue to find themselves in a process with its focus on the restructuring of the organisation and the development of new capabilities.
- It is important to make a distinction between the military capability that they possess today and the capability that they are planning, says Carolina Vendil Pallin.