The War against Ukraine – Trench Warfare with New Technology
In a development unexpected by experts, the character of Russia’s war against Ukraine has evolved into something akin to the trench warfare of World War I, although with modern technology.
The Lancet-3 is a Russian loitering munition with two sets of X-shaped wings and an electric propeller propulsion system. Image from Shutterstock.
To create a better understanding of how technology is used in general, and how loitering munitions are used in particular, researchers at FOI have analysed how Russia has utilised its Lancet-3 loitering munition, a type of so-called suicide drone. Russia’s first use of the Lancet-3 was during its intervention in the Syrian Civil War.
Investigating how Russia has utilised the drone in its war against Ukraine has presented certain challenges.
“Our compilation has relied only on open sources,” says Arvid Carlstedt, a research engineer at FOI. “Video clips of the Lancet-3 are frequently published by pro-Russian accounts, which means that we rarely see examples where the drones have failed. Therefore, we have to be careful about the conclusions we draw about the effectiveness of the system.”
Despite the limitations on our analysis, however, certain indicative conclusions can be drawn about the use of the Lancet-3. Among other things, conclusions can be drawn about target selection.
“On that point, the result is clear,” Arvid Carlstedt continues. “In 81 percent of the films where we were able to identify the intended target, it has been artillery or air defence systems.”
This knowledge is undoubtedly beneficial to the Swedish Armed Forces.
“It is important to monitor the development and use of loitering munitions in Ukraine in order to ensure that our conclusions are as relevant as possible,” says Lars Forsell, FOI’s deputy research director for loitering munitions.