18 September

Conditions for an alliance in the Indo-Pacific Region

In an era marked by international upheaval, states and leaders are compelled to reassess old certainties and explore new strategic pathways. This often results in the formation of new alliances or other cooperative arrangements between nations. A recent example of this trend is the transition of Sweden and Finland from military non-alignment to NATO membership.

Ledare från QUAD samarbetet

In the study Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: förutsättningarna för en allians i den indopacifiska regionen [trans: Quadrilateral Security Dialogue: Conditions for an Alliance in the Indo-Pacific Region], researchers from the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) analyse the potential for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving the US, Australia, Japan, and India, to evolve into an alliance. The study examines factors such as the balance of power, external threats, war plans, ideological solidarity, strategic culture, and national perspectives on the global order using theories and research on modern alliance formation.

“The Indo-Pacific Region has become increasingly significant for global security policy, especially given recent geopolitical changes. It’s crucial that we deepen our understanding of this region’s security developments and their impact on European security,” says Albin Aronsson, a researcher at FOI and one of the study’s authors.

Quad in brief

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly referred to as the Quad, is a cooperative forum involving the US, Australia, Japan, and India. Their collaboration began in response to the 2004 tsunami, when the four nations needed to coordinate their disaster relief efforts.

“The Quad cooperation has expanded rapidly in recent years, especially as distrust towards China has grown,” Aronsson notes. “There is a pressing need to strengthen cooperation on maritime security, among other things.”

While the Quad’s official aim is to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific region by tackling common security challenges and enhancing regional cooperation, much indicates, however, that the will and ability to confront the growing challenge from China is a core driver of the Quad cooperation’s development.

Are the conditions suitable for an alliance?

External factors, such as China’s rise, favour the formation of a Quad alliance, but when the internal dynamics among the members are considered, significant challenges appear.

“If we only consider external factors like the threat from China, the Quad has a strong potential to develop into an alliance,” says Albin Aronsson. “But internal factors among the Quad countries, such as ideological differences, strategic cultures, and differing views on the international order, make this prospect less favourable.”

A critical factor influencing the Quad’s future is China’s development, especially its military capacity, intentions, and relationships with other nations, particularly Russia. Albin Aronsson notes, “The evolution of the Quad into an alliance will largely hinge on how China advances in these areas and its ties with Russia.” However, despite external factors pointing toward a potential alliance, the Quad still faces internal obstacles that its members need to address.

Important to continue knowledge-building about the region

The study’s results underscore the importance of ongoing monitoring and analysis of security developments in the Indo-Pacific region. This is also addressed in the Swedish Ministry of Defence’s new strategic focus on the region. The Quad study is a step in this initiative and will be followed by several more reports on the region.

In 2024, FOI released several reports examining a number of countries in the Indo-Pacific region, including Indien som säkerhetspolitisk aktör—Konsekvenser för svenska försvarsrelationer [trans. India as a Security Policy Actor—Consequences for Sweden’s defence relationships]; the anthology, Strategic Outlook: China as a Global Power; and the study on the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue presented here.

On September 30, FOI, in collaboration with the Swedish nongovernmental organisation, Folk och försvar [trans. Society and Defence], will host a seminar on the Indo-Pacific region, beginning with an address by Defence Minister Pål Jonsson and followed by panels on security policy and innovation. For further insights and detailed information, refer to the original reports and studies mentioned here, using the links below. You can also register for the seminar.

There are several interpretations and definitions of an alliance. In this report, the researchers have used Glenn H. Snyder’s definition of a military alliance as described in his book Alliance Politics:

“Alliances are formal associations of states for the use (or nonuse) of military force, in specified circumstances, against states outside their own membership.”

An alliance, therefore, consists of states and no other actors. An alliance includes some form of formality, such as a legal agreement, some degree of reciprocity, and a common structure.

The use of military power is central. In an alliance, members commit to pooling their military resources in various ways and for different purposes. This can be considered the primary purpose of an alliance (Snyder, Alliance Politics, p. 4).