Ukraine resists attacks on power system

Despite Russia’s extensive assaults on Ukraine’s power infrastructure, the country has repeatedly managed to cope with power outages. Good coordination, quick repairs and effective air defence played a significant role, researchers at FOI write in a report.

In October 2022, Russia launched a targeted campaign against Ukraine’s power system. This involved attacks with thousands of missiles and drones. Large parts of the power infrastructure were damaged or destroyed, resulting in prolonged power outages. However, Ukraine managed to repair the damaged infrastructure and mitigate the consequences of the power loss. One reason for this success was a certain level of combat experience.

“Ukraine had prepared itself. Since the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and the conflict in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, the country has worked to enhance its ability to maintain the functionality of its power system,” says Anders Odell, Deputy Research Director at FOI, and one of the authors of the report Russian Attacks on the Ukrainian Power System.

Coordination is key

The report focusses on the winter of 2022–2023, detailing Ukraine’s ability to secure its electricity supply amid armed attacks. The researchers highlight that certain conditions and specific measures made this possible.

“In addition to ensuring access to repair personnel, various actors in the electricity sector collaborated with the armed forces and law enforcement. This made it possible to coordinate and prioritise what needed to be done, when, and how, as well as ensuring that the repair teams could carry out their work safely,” Odell says.

The Ukrainian power system was largely built during the Soviet era. It was designed to be robust and withstand war. This has been a strength, but the Soviet legacy has also brought disadvantages. For example, certain spare parts are only available in the former Soviet states. However, in recent years, Ukraine had begun modernising the system and took the opportunity to save functioning older equipment, which has helped restore the system’s functionality.

Air defence plays a critical role

Today, Ukraine’s power system is synchronised with the EU’s, which facilitates the sale of electricity. Ukraine’s power grid was connected to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, ENTSO-E, in March 2022.

“Ukraine had an excess of both electricity production and transmission capacity before the war, which has provided an additional margin to secure power supply to its customers,” Odell says.

“In addition to the previously mentioned conditions and measures, air defence has also played a tremendously important role in protecting the system, according to Odell.

Ukraine has managed to shoot down a large portion of the drones and missiles fired by Russia, thereby preventing damage and destruction to critical infrastructure. Every missile or drone shot down potentially avoids serious, costly, and deadly consequences,” Odell adds.

Various support and financing programmes from the international community have also played a role in maintaining Ukraine’s electricity supply, the report states. Additionally, Ukraine removed import duties and VAT on generators, which ensured a good supply of generators during power outages.

The largest attack

The researchers summarise the report by stating, “Ukraine’s ability to avoid a collapse of its power system has, in turn, enabled the country to continue resisting Russia’s invasion”.

The report’s final section provides an update on the current situation in Ukraine regarding attacks on the power grid. As recently as March this year, Ukraine suffered extensive assaults, leaving about a million people without electricity. The CEO of state-owned Ukrainian energy company, Ukrenergo, described it as the largest attack on the energy sector since the war began.

The report was commissioned by the Swedish Energy Agency and Svenska Kraftnät.