Political will, not technology, decisive in Ending Russian Energy Imports
After Russia’s expanded invasion of Ukraine, the European Commission decided to gradually reduce its dependence on Russian, gas, coal, and oil. The goal was to become independent of Russian energy by 2027. How has it gone? Analysts at FOI present the answer in a report.
Pumpjacks extract oil from a well in Tatarstan operated by Elkhovneft, a subsidiary of Tatneft, one of the largest national oil and gas producers in Russia. Photo: Yegor Aleyev/TASS/Sipa USA.
Before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was the largest exporter of energy to Europe. In March 2022, one month after the invasion, the European Commission decided that member states should reduce their reliance on Russian energy. This decision has been successful, according to FOI’s report, but certain critical dependencies remain.
“Many EU countries have reduced their dependence on Russian oil and natural gas; overall, between 80 and 90 percent for oil and gas,” says Emil Wannheden, an analyst at FOI and expert on the Russian economy, who authored the report.
Pipelines from the Soviet era
Using trade data, he has analysed various member states’ dependence on energy trade with Russia, noting significant differences in progress.
“Germany and France have completely stopped importing oil and gas from Russia, while Central European countries like Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria remain dependent on imports of either oil, gas, or nuclear fuel from Russia.”
For example, by the end of 2023, the Czech Republic was importing about half of its oil from Russia. Austria imports 80 to 90 percent of its gas from Russia, and Slovakia imports nearly all of its oil and gas from Russia. Russia stopped exporting gas to Austria mid-November 2024.
The reason so many Central European countries remain dependent on Russian energy, in the form of oil and/or gas, is due to infrastructure, such as pipelines, that dates back to the Soviet era. Emil Wannheden suggests that for these countries to achieve the European Commission’s goal, they need to make a firm choice to invest and eliminate their dependence on Russia.
Political will varies
Emil Wannheden argues that the differences between countries are more about political will than technical or economic barriers.
“Becoming independent of Russian energy involves building new gas pipelines or adapting oil-fired power plants to use other types of oil. It’s not a question of astronomical sums.”
In some countries, political will is lacking. He cites Hungary as an example, a country still investing in Russian-built nuclear power. Austria has chosen to import large amounts of Russian gas and recently elected a federal government that is more pro-Russian.
“Bulgaria, on the other hand, has shifted away from Russian oil and is an example of a country moving in the right direction despite its previous dependence,” says Emil Wannheden.
Dependence supports Russia’s economy
In his report, The EU’s continued dependencies on Russian energy: A clean break?, Emil Wannheden aims to highlight the long-term vulnerability of being locked in to dependencies, offering it as a warning of how such dependencies can affect the security situation.
“Anyone dependent on importing energy from Russia is also supporting its economy. By purchasing Russian energy, one contributes to Russian federal budget. The Russian budget is entirely dependent on revenues from energy exports.”
How realistic is the European Commission’s goal of phasing out member states’ imports of Russian energy by 2027?
“I believe that it could have happened even sooner if more countries had been willing,” says Emil Wannheden.