China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is modernising and becoming more capable. To deepen understanding of that shift, researchers at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, have developed a framework for analysing Chinese military power.

Commissioned by Sweden’s Ministry of Defence, FOI has published Studying China’s Military Power: Analytical Framework and Methods. The report will underpin a regular series of FOI studies on China in the years ahead.

“Understanding China’s military power matters more than ever. Its recent military parade in Beijing showed just how quickly the armed forces are modernising. Our research is meant to complement a field still dominated by US research on China’s military capability. The research we do here, together with work from many countries beyond the United States, brings fresh perspectives,” says Oscar Almén, Deputy Research Director and co-editor of the report.

The analytical framework consists of three parts and can also be used to assess the military power of countries other than China.

“It’s about the military resources a state has, how it views the use of military power as a means to achieve its objectives, and variables that can affect its ability to employ military power. Examples of the latter include geography, strategies, and the effectiveness of military training,” says Christopher Weidacher Hsiung, FOI researcher and the report’s co-editor.

Much remains to explore

Most analysts agree that during the 2000s China went from having an underfunded military with outdated equipment to being a modern military power with advanced systems. The military nevertheless lacks combat experience and has limited practice in conducting missions together with other countries.

“A great deal still remains to be examined in order to understand Chinese military power better, however. It’s not enough to count tanks. Despite censorship and attempts to restrict information, we believe there are open sources and data in China that can be accessed by combining different research methods,” says Oscar Almén.

The report also highlights the challenges of studying a sensitive topic in an authoritarian setting.

“An important ambition for us is to capture the Chinese perspective. How do they themselves think about military power? What do they see as their greatest threats? How are they going about addressing the problems the country’s military faces? With this framework now in place, we can devote effort into answering those questions,” says Christopher Weidacher Hsiung.