As one way of maintaining its political power, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continuously tries to increase its global influence. A part of this involves the use of transnational repression (TNR) to control any challenge to its rule from outside China’s borders.

This study examines (1) how the regime-critical diapora experiences China’s transnational repression, and (2) what political activities its members engage in. Against the background of the global regime-critical diaspora, the study specifically examines the Swedish case based on 16 interviews with regime-critical diaspora members in Sweden.

Building on previous research on TNR, the study identifies a set of TNR methods commonly used by authoritarian regimes against their diaspora. The Chinese party-state uses all methods to varying extents, from abductions to espionage and harassment. The targets of the repression are all within the regime-critical diaspora, including members of the democracy movement, human rights advocates, Falun Gong, Uyghurs, Tibetans, Mongolians, Hongkongers, and Taiwanese.

A particularly common method is proxy punishment of friends or relatives in China in order to pressure the activist to cease their political activism. In the case of Sweden, despite being targets of China’s TNR, the interviewees generally felt safe. The Swedish authorities take TNR seriously and the security agencies have had contact with most of the interviewees.

Some of the interviewees had experienced direct threats from Chinese authorities while residing in Sweden. Twelve of the 16 interviewees described incidents where relatives or friends in China have been harassed or punished by Chinese security authorities because of their connection to the interviewee. The regime-critical diaspora includes a number of groups, including state-seeking nationalists such as ethnic minorities and Hong Kong activists that strive for independence or extended autonomy and improved human rights. Other groups, including Falun Gong and the democracy movement, strive for regime change for the whole of China.

Currently, because the domestic political situation is relatively stable and the regime has extensive means to monitor and control the population, the Chinese regime is not seriously threatened by regime-critical diaspora movements. However, this can quickly change if a major upheaval, what social movement researchers call a quotidian disruption, happens.

Political impact and limits to diaspora activism

The 2022 Blank Paper Protests in connection with the COVID-19 lockdown were probably the closest mainland China has come to such a disruption since the 1989 student protests. In such a situation, the regime-critical diaspora can play an important role by intervening in the rebellion.

The study used Moss’s typology of diaspora intervention and found that the first three interventions, broadcasting, representing, and brokering, were widespread among the interviewees. Some interviewees have been successful in spreading information, lobbying Swedish and international politicians, and organising internationally. Two of the interventions, remittances and volunteering on the front lines, were far less common.

This too can be explained by the Chinese regime’s strong capacity for surveillance and control. In the absence of a quotidian disruption such as the Tiananmen protest or, to a lesser extent, the Blank Paper Protest, it is unlikely that diaspora interventions will have a major impact on the political situation in China.

Nevertheless, diaspora activism can still make a difference in individual cases. The Chinese regime cares about outside criticism; its massive TNR policy to silence the diaspora is evidence of that. Several interviewees pointed to the importance of maintaining media attention on the human rights situation in China in general and on individual cases in particular.

China will most likely continue to expand its TNR. It will be of increasing importance for liberal democracies such as Sweden to maintain focus on how to guard against TNR, to ensure the safety of refugees, and to make sure that members of the diaspora can continue their lawful political activities.

This text is an executive summary of the report Resisting China's transnational repression, by FOI researcher Oscar Almén.