The character of future conflicts. Partial report 1. (översatt till engelska R--00-01822-201--SE)

Authors:

  • Andersson Folke
  • Andre Turlind Elisabeth
  • Görnerup Emil
  • Sjöberg Eric (huvudförfattare)
  • Wiss Åke

Publish date: 2001-01-31

Report number: FOA-R--00-01699-201

Pages: 33

Written in: Swedish

Abstract

When focusing on organisations, which may constitute a serious threat to nation-states, it is found that this is mainly organisations capable of acting globally, alternatively co-operating or gaining support from trans-national networks. This co-operation yields economic sustainability and access to competence and technology. If instead focusing on the conflicts themselves, in which violence or threat of violence exists, it is found that the assault to a high, and probably rising, degree may come from within the society itself. This is true when a criminal organisation tries to take over the legal institutions in a nation-state, when a warlord takes control over primary commodities, when a fundamentalistic religious movement tries to transform a secular nation-state into a theocrati and, finally, when a nation-state utilise asymmetrical warfare and carry out anonymous assaults on other nation-states.