Indian and Pakistani Weapons of Mass Destruction in a Security Policy Context. A Comparative Analysis of Capabilities, Objectives and Consequences
Publish date: 2002-01-01
Report number: FOI-R--0437--SE
Pages: 80
Written in: English
Abstract
India and Pakistan are still developing their nuclear arsenals. Both countries have ratified the Biological and chemical Weapons Conventions. India´s and Pakistan´s NW have a strategic role rather than a tactical, whereas potential BW and CW capabilities would play a predominantly tactical role. Pakistani nuclear weapons and US pressure on India to refrain from operations across the line of control (LoC) have so far prevented the low-intensity conflict (LIC) in Kashmir from escalating. However, in the alternath of 11 September 2001 it seems that this LIC could continue and possibly even escalate even though both countries possess nuclear weapons. There is a danger that both countries resort to the use of BW/CW, which offer signicant operative support in the mountainous terrain of Kashmir. Indian conventional superiority and Pakistani lack of strategic depth have caused Pakistan to adopt a nuclear first-strike policy. A large-scale war between India and Pakistan cannot be excluded, even though it is unlikely since India is still equally vulnerable to Pakistan´s nuclear weapons. A nuclear war seems highly unlikely. It is also unlikely that such a war would start with a nuclear strike. Apart from accidental launches a perceived existential threat is about the only case when Pakistan would be prone to use its nuclear arsenal. However, the combination of poor command and control systems, weak early warning systems and the geographical proximity still makes the Indo-Pakistani nuclear a cause of great concern.