Fjärrstridskrafter - Rysslands framtida kapacitet

There is a rapid evolution in guided weapons. russia has capability and knowledge to follow and implement that development. There might well be a considerable shift in russian present capacity to conduct air-to ground operations if Russia will acquire such weapons. That shift is possible even if russia must restrict itself to the use of existing aircraft. A condition is that the Russian Air Force will develop normal status in maintenance of equipment and personnel training. Russian air capability will develop into a threat only after are a political upheaval. To guard against that, it is necessary to give political and materiel support for continued democratic evolution. However an armed air defence will be needed as a last resort. The data and considerations behind the conclusions are presented in the second part of the report. The way is described how a great number of performance data are combined to aggregated capability figures. Data from Kosovo and Kuweit-war are used for air to ground weapons. a new method has been developedn for air-to-air equipment. a number of sensitivity analysis are carried through because of the uncertainty in data and methods.