Forecast for exhaust emissions from civil aviation in 2006, 2010 and 2030 - Base year 2000
Publish date: 2003-01-01
Report number: FOI-R--0802--SE
Pages: 31
Written in: Swedish
Abstract
The emissions from Swedish civil aviation are presented for 2006, 2010 and 2030 in relation to the base year 2000. The calculations are based on traffic forecasts provided by the Swedish Civil Aviation Author-ity. Separate forecast calculations are performed for four different scenarios for the aircraft fleet: a tradi-tional technology scenario, a hydrogen scenario, a biofuels scenario and a low-NOX technology scenario. Following emissions are presented in the report: CO2, H2O, NOX, HC and CO. The calculations cover emissions during whole flights as well as emissions during the so-called LTO cycle. The CO2 emissions per passenger would in 2030, compared to the base year, be decreased by 15% if the aircraft fleet would be renewed with best available technology. Introduction of low-NOX technology would for the same scenario give a decrease of 23%, while a successive introduction of hydrogen fuelled aircraft would give a decrease of 55%. The NOX emissions are accordingly expected to decrease by 12% per passenger for the traditional technology scenario, by 46% for the low-NOX scenario and by 57% for the hydrogen scenario.