The purpose of this study is to analyse some threat factors in the Moldovian temporary development, that could lead to serious instability. The report initially describes the historical factors pertinent to the present development. The author moves on to analyse later developments during the period 1989-2001 with emphasis on the construction of a political system after independence, the ethnical questions and the geopolitical orientation. The specific problems in the Gagauz Yeri and Transnistria areas are also analysed. After a follow up of the latest developments, the author makes a risk assessment from four perspectives: the politicalideological, the economic perspective, the identity perspective and the perspective of foreign actors. The report concludes by sketching some possible scenarios from a threat perspective.