Scenario Planning for Future Ground Forces - Does Sweden need an Army?

Authors:

  • Eriksson E Anders
  • Frelin Jan
  • Jonason Tobias
  • Wickberg Peter

Publish date: 2004-01-01

Report number: FOI-R--1249--SE

Pages: 67

Written in: Swedish

Abstract

This publication reports work done for the Ground Forces department of the SwAF HQ Forces Directorate during 2003 and also involving the group of development managers of the Swedish Army. The type of scenario methodology commonly associated with Shell and GBN was utilised to develop at set of external or context scenarios for the Swedish ground forces with 2025 as time horizon. This type of scenarios is not restricted to specific conflict situations. Rather they depict the "whole surrounding world" as relevant to the entity under study. Due to this the scenarios are usable for strategic conversations on a wide range of future oriented choices facing the organisation in focus (here the Swedish ground forces). A specific application to missions and capabilities is also reported. The main purpose of the report, however, is to make the scenarios available as a tool for future strategic analysis work.