Russia's Energy Policy: Security Dimensions and Russia's Reliability as an Energy Supplier
Publish date: 2006-03-01
Report number: FOI-R--1934--SE
Pages: 365
Written in: English
Abstract
The objective of this study is to elucidate Russia´s role as a strategic energy supplier by analysing its energy policy from a security political perspective while the aim is to assess the question of whether Russia is a reliable supplier of energy. This is done by focusing on Russia´s resource base, its perceptions, domestic market management, the state´s control of the energy sector, Russia´s foreign energy relations and its energy levers. The conclusions are that Russia´s political reliability as an energy supplier depends on the time perspective, the receiver and the context. Further usage of the energy levers will likely be aimed at the former Soviet states, butEurope may well be affected. Beyond doupts, russia´s coercive energy policy should be understood in a long-term geopolitical and strategic context under which political economic and market drivers coexist.Russia has strategic priorities to keep its influence over the CIS and its energy policy is one of the means used for this reason. The international competition for Russia´s resources is a future key factor. As a result, frictions may arise both between Russia and consumers, and between various consumers. The negative democratic trends in combination with Russia´s structural instability and unpredictability in policy underscore that the magnitude of uncertainties concerning Russia´s development are much higher than it first seems.