Early Warning Indicators Concerning Instability and State Collapse - A Comparison of Practices and Causes for Failures

Authors:

  • Leijonhielm Jan

Publish date: 2006-01-01

Report number: FOI-R--2003--SE

Pages: 23

Written in: English

Abstract

Swedish international military mission increasingly take place in nations on the brink of or hit by instability or state collapse. With this in mind, it seems pertinent to look at the early warning signals in this context, This is done in the report by describing the development and structures of early warning systems used by EU and NATO plus some other important actors. In particular, the indicator lists used are scrutinized and these are thereafter summarily compared and evaluated. The report continues with a discussion of the main reasons for warning failures and is concluded by a number of suggestions on how to improve the indicator lists.