Sweden's Future Climate in the short- and medium-term perspective
Publish date: 2009-01-21
Report number: FOI-R--2700--SE
Pages: 46
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- climate change
- short and medium term perspective
- emissions
- uncertainty
Abstract
This report studies two questions - how the actual amount of greenhouse gas emissions has changed over time in comparison with provious assumptions and what will happen to Sweden´s climate from short and medium term perspectives given the future development of the climate in general. The content of this report shall be used as the basis for continued work in the development of climate adaptation tools that can be used primarily in Sweden. The first section of this report presents the development of actual greenhouse gas emissions in recent years. Eight years have passed since IPCC published its emissions scenarios (SRES and for this reason a comparison between the emissions levels from the report and the experimental data from observations made in recent years is well due. Measurements show that current levels of emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels exceed the overage of the SRES families as a whole. Among other implications, this means that emission levels are significantly higher than the levels assumed in the climate scenarios of the Swedish Commission on Climate and Vulnerability (Klimat- och sårbarhetsutredningen). There is little support from the experimental data to indicate that this rate of increase will subside. In addition, studies are indicating that the increased emissions are not solely attributable to a rise in population levels and increased wealth (GNP/capita)). Another aspect is that the carbon intensity, measured as the amount of carbon dioxide per unit production price, has been declining since 2000. This is intirely contrary to the assumptions made in all of the emissions scenarios in SRES that carbon dioxide efficiency would continue to increase. The report therefore concludes that work with climate adaptation in Sweden must take into consideration to a greater extent than is currently done today the consequences of emissions levels that are in line with or exceed the highest SRES levels. The second section of this report takes a closeer look at Sweden´s future climate from both a short and medium term perspective. Socio-economic development and future climate conditions combined are the most influential factors in the creation of the context within which decisions about adaptation are made. Climate researech generally tends to base the majority of the scenarios on relatively long time perspectives (100 years or more). Efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions also often need to apply a long-term perspective. Howeveer, it is more interesting within the framework of adaptation work to adopt a shorter perspective. There is currently a gap between the focus of climate research and the needs arising in conjunction with the adaptation of society to a changing climate. This report argues that society´s need to adapt to a changing climate increases the demand for climate scenarios with shorter perspectives. The report revisits and compares several different estimations of what Sweden´s climate might look like in the years 2030 and 2060. It can be stated that the uncertainly in the shorter-term perspective (2030) with regard to forced climate changes is relatively small, which is why focus should therefore lie on resolving the socio-economic uncertainties. However, in the longer-term perspective (2060), the uncertainly related to the development of the climate increases and for this reason a larger range of future climate scenarios should be considered. As a result of this reasoning, only one climate scenario is presented for 2030 while the climate in 2060 includes three scenarios.