The great wave - China’s future strategic submarine

Authors:

  • Mårten Stenmark
  • Eva Dalberg

Publish date: 2009-03-03

Report number: FOI-R--2722--SE

Pages: 44

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • China
  • nuclear weapons
  • strategic submarines
  • security

Abstract

Even though the development of the economy in China has been tremendous, with the change this implies for the society as a whole, the Chinese stance as a nuclear weapon state remains unchanged.This implies the sustainment of a minimal nuclear threat capability. The nuclear arsenal, as well, seems to remain stable at roughly 200 nuclear warheads. On the other hand there is an ongoing technical development to maintain minimal deterrence in the future. As an element of this development there is a strategic nuclear submarine force venture that, even though its history is long. has been questioned regarding its operability. Currently, a new series of strategic submarines (Jin type 094) as well as new intercontinental missiles (JL-2), which can be launched from these submarines, are under development. We find that this venture will strengthen the Chinese second strike capability. It is an intelligence as well as reconnaissance heavy endeavour to track strategic submarines, and it is hard to achieve warranted protection against their threat. This holds for the USA, the dimensioning threat for China, which has both a large nuclear arsenal, huge reconnaissance capability as well as a missile defence under development. In this way, the strategic nuclear submarine force is in many ways an advantageous alternative for China, which meets the need for protection of its nuclear arsenal, as well as being a flexible capability which can be used globally in the future. The danger of the Chinese ambitions lies in their interaction with the policies of the security alliances of the region, and whether this interaction will result in an arms race in Asia, a region with many states with nuclear weapons as well as those with nuclear ambitions.