Russia in Perspective. Scenarios of Russia´s Economic Future 10 to 20 years Ahead

Authors:

  • Susanne Oxenstierna

Publish date: 2009-07-07

Report number: FOI-R--2774--SE

Pages: 62

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Economic development
  • Russia
  • scenarios
  • growth
  • labour
  • capital
  • investment
  • economic system
  • competition
  • oil
  • nuclear power
  • military sector

Abstract

This study develops scenarios of possible economic developments in the Russian Federation 10 to 20 years ahead through studying trends in the most important variables affecting economic growth - labour, capital, energy supply and technical change. Three scenarios were developed, each bearing the name and the policy characteristics of three Russian rulers: Peter the Great, Batu Khan and Alexander the Third. The characteristics of the Russian economic system, i.e. the Russian-style capitalism and market economy, are also discussed since they set the economic framework for economic development and economic policy-making. The main economic challenges to Russia´s future economic growth were found to be the sharp drop in the labour force, slow technical change and productivity growth, high energy intensity, dependence on the external oil price, unreformed domestic energy markets and low degree of competition in many sectors. Foreign, security and domestic policy developments are not analysed in the report. For each scenario the political prerequisites are sust assumed and presented.

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