Transnistria: An Economic and Security Political Analysis
Publish date: 2009-06-30
Report number: FOI-R--2784--SE
Pages: 40
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Transnistria
- Moldova
- Russia
- ukraine
- economy
- security policy
- Transnistrian conflict
- Yevgeny Shevchuk
Abstract
Transnistria´s economy is small and its population poor in terms of GDP/capita. The main economic activities in Transnistria are mainly based on a small number of big enterprises inherited from the Soviet era. The total economy of the region is one third of what it was in 1990, despite a strong economic growth during the last decade. During this period, the region has accumulated a big foreign debt, around 200-300 per cent of GDP (to a great extent in form of failed payments to Gazprom for gas deliveries ) and, at the same, it has time sold out state assets. Deficit in trade and balance of current account are chronic and it is not due to that the region attracts foreign direct investments. All in all, implies that the position of Transnistria is very bad when coping with the current global recession. The comprehensive picture is that Transnistria does not settle the situation without external help. This help will come and has since the beginning of the 1990s been coming from Russia. Russian economic and political interests are today the outstanding most important in Transnistria and a solution of the conflict with Moldova without Russian participation is unthinkable. Even if Russia today is favoured by status quo it cannot be excluded in the future that Russia would give up Transnistria and open up for a re-integration with Moldova provided that its influence over Moldova would not jeopardized.