Energy security and energy related dependencies

Authors:

  • Bengt Johansson
  • Daniel Jonsson
  • Malin Östensson

Publish date: 2010-04-19

Report number: FOI-R--2979--SE

Pages: 169

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Energy security
  • vulnerabilities
  • climate change
  • fossil fuels
  • renewable energy

Abstract

In this pilot study, different approaches to energy security and energy dependencies are discussed. Current and future dependencies are briefly discussed. Disturbances to the energy system could be caused by lack of investments, technical errors, weather occurences, terror attacks, acts of war and blockades. Strategies to avoid disturbances could include energy efficiency improvements, increased energy diversity and flexibility, increased use of national energy sources, reliance and defence of well-functioning international energy markets, investments in and bilateral agreements with resource rich countries, investments in the quality and redundancy of the system, energy storage or efficient handling of energy crises. The Swedish energy system shows a relatively low dependency of fossil fuels compared to other countries. Specific energy use has been reduced significanty since 1970, which could be an indication that the economy is less dependent of sussen energy price fluctuations. Swedish electricity production is dominated by hydro and nuclear power. As the Swedish electricity system is connected to the neighboring countries, large quantities of electricity are imported and exported depending on demand, the availability of production capacity and production costs. Swedish industry is only to a low degree dependent on oil. Instead, since 1970, the use of electricity and biomass (as industrial by-products) has increased significantly. the transport sector is on the other hand almost totally dependent of petroleum based fuels. The energy systems of germany and the UK differ from the Swedish by their greater dependence on fossil fuels, not least natural gas. Whereas Germany imports a lot of the gas from Russia, the UK still produces a significant fraction of the consumption domestically. In Sweden, Germany, the UK and the EU as a whole, energy security is an important part of energy policy together with sustainability and competitiveness. The climate issues have during recent years acted as a driver for the transformation of European energy systems. Even if the European Commission has been striving for a common European energy policy, member states have been rather reluctant to such initiatives. Some explanations for this could be the varying dependence on natural gas and diverging views on how energy markets should be organised. The global energy system will change as a result of the ambition to reduce its impact on the climate. This will lead to changed patterns of dependency which can have an impact on energy security. Renewable energy will gain in importance although fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy supply for a long time. The role of the Middle East countries and OPEC as producers can be expected to increase but hte energy flows will partly be redirected to new large consumers such as China and India. Central Asia, North Africa, South America and perhaps the Arctic region will grow in importance as energy producingregions thanks to their proximity to great markets, significant existing energy resources and/or potentials for large scale renewable energy production. Climate change will affect future energy supply through for example changed energy consumption patterns and impact on energy infrastructures. Climate change is not expected to result in new threats to Swedish energy supply but will probably aggravate existing threats, for example, of extreme weather events.