Klimatförändringar och säkerhet: ett komplext område med betydelse för framtiden

The security consequences of climate change have received increased attention in recent years by policymakers and researchers. During 2010 the Swedish Ministry of Defence has commissioned Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, to undertake an exploratory study on the relationship between climate change and security as well as its consequences for the Swedish crisis management system. The conclusions from this project relate to three areas: (1) the linkages between climate change, security and armed conflict, (2) climate change and its security implications for Swedish crisis management, and (3) pivotal areas for future research and analysis. (1) The linkages between climate change, security and armed conflict Climate change will have security consequences in a broad sense, particularly through its impacts on access to natural resources and weather-related disasters. Current research has, however, principally addressed the consequences of climate change on natural resources. The perspective used for analysing the security consequences of climate change shapes the analysis result. For instance, a state-based approach towards security identifies other kinds of consequences than a human security approach. In order to gain a coherent understanding of the security consequences of climate change different perspectives needs to be adopted. There is no simple causal relationship between climate change and armed conflict. Climate change is one factor of many that determine the risk of armed conflict. Because conflicts are dependent on a web of interconnected factors, in reality it is impossible to predict where and when future conflicts will break out. Context-dependent analysis of the consequences of climate change on societies world-wide can , however, reinforce prevailing knowledge. This knowledge can increase the understanding of the linkages between climate change and armed conflict as well as strengthen societies´capacity to meet the challenges posed by climate change. 2. Climate change and its security implications for Swedish crisis management Climate change is a large-scale process of transformation that can have security consequences for societies world-wide. Hence, it is an adequate subject to address in Swedish security policy and in the Swedish civilian and military crisis management systems. A preventive approach to the potential challenges caused by climate change is critical in order to reduce the risk of armed conflicts and humanitarian catastrophes. In preparing society for the security consequences of climate change the risk of more rapid and severe climate change scenarios needs to be taken into consideration. Furthermore, it is crucial that the analysis address the regional and levels in order to include climate change variability and contextual factors in the analysis. The security implications of climate change is pertinent in all kinds of long-term planning processes and in preventive work, for instance social planning and defence planning processes, crisismanagement, conflict prevention and disaster risk reduction. The approach dominating the work of Swedish agencies in the security and crisis management sector involves reducing the environmental footprint. hence, future-orientated analysis is needed of the expected consequences of climate change in order to provide knowledge on various types of challenges that crisis management will face in the future. 3. Ares for future research and analysis Develop tha analytical framework that can be used to analyse the security implications of climate change. Conduct detailed local and regional analysis of the impacts from climate change and its variability as well as its interaction with other large-scale transformation processes. Analyse the expected consequences of climate change with a wider perspective than the mid-scenarios from the International Panel on Climate Change. This is particularly pertinent from a security perspective and its important for strengthening societies´capacity of meeting future challenges. Perform future-orientated analysis of the security consequences of climate change on the Swedish security policy and crisis management, for instance concerning prerequisites, concept, equipment and education. What-if scenarios with focus on the future challenges society can face and how society can meet those challenges.