Computer supported hypothesis management for intelligence analysis

In this report, a future tool for hypothesis management is described. The tool should support intelligence analysts in their work with creating and testing hypotheses. The suggested tool builds on an agent-based approach, where the intelligence analysts provide the knowledge needed for the analysis, but where the system provides functionality for structuring the work, searching and recommending related information, and for increasing the traceability of the analysis process. Moreover, the presented hypothesis management tool offers support for a collaborative working process by allowing search on related hypotheses and by encouraging interaction and collaboration between analysts. The report presents a vision of what kind of functionality that can be expected from this type of tool in the future, and also presents an adaptation of the current workflow. Some of the presented ideas can be implemented with a relatively small effort, while others are more far from being implemented. The presented ideas regarding how to make the analysis process more structured and how to automate some parts of the work are all suggested with the aim of creating an increased possibility for the human analyst to focus on the "advanced" analysis, in order to create analyses of better quality than today.