Some technical aspects of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in the Baltic Sea region

Authors:

  • Eva Dalberg
  • Martin Goliath
  • Mårten Stenmark

Publish date: 2011-12-14

Report number: FOI-R--3255--SE

Pages: 52

Written in: Swedish

Abstract

In this report an assessment method of nuclear weapons effects on targets is utilized. Some issues of importance for the effect on target have been studied. One focus has been the interplay between the damage radius and the accuracy of the missile system. The method is illustrated using the Russian tactical missile systems Tochka and Iskander. Since no details concerning their performance has been published in the open literature, as well as no official Russian statement that these systems indeed can carry nuclear warheads, this assessment has been done schematically. A selection of representative targets has been chosen. This selection consists of hardened C2-center, missile field, radar system, fighter squadron, industrial complex, and harbour. Damage radii against these targets have been calculated for nuclear yields in the range 0,3-300 kt. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to study the impact of variations in the accuracy of the systems as well as a complex scenario with several target types present at the same time. Some issues, such as target mobility, have also been studied. Some of these issues may be overcome by using homing devices. Some requirements that have to be fulfilled in this case are also presented. One important conclusion of this work is that the Iskander system, which is more accurate, may in general be used with smaller yields and still be as effective as the Tochka system. This is especially true for the kind of targets where a nuclear warhead could be particularly useful, i.e. against hardened silos.