Svensk krisberedskap och klimatförändringarnas indirekta effekter. Betydelsen av förebyggande arbete

Authors:

  • Malin Mobjörk

Publish date: 2011-10-13

Report number: FOI-R--3270--SE

Pages: 44

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Swedish crisis management system
  • crisis management
  • climate change
  • energy supply
  • food supply
  • scenario analysis

Abstract

This study analyses the impacts from climate change on Swedish crisis management. The starting point is the consequences following more comprehensive climate change, i.e. consequences from a high emission scenario, in combination with a special interest for the indirect effects following climate change. Two areas, supply of energy and food, have been used as cases for the analysis to focus upon. The investigation has been funded by Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency, MSB, and the study aims at increasing the knowledge about the challenges climate change pose on Swedish crisis management. Sweden has in general a propitious situation concerning both energy supply and food supply. Sweden has, furthermore, a fortunate climatic condition. However, the challenges posed by climate change on Swedish crisis management ought not to be underestimated. Climate change is expected to lead to direct challenges on crisis management due to more frequent and intense extreme weather events, which leads to that the crisis management system needs to develop its capability to handle several crises simultaneously as well as reduced recovery time between crises. Additionally, Sweden is expected to meet challenges following indirect effects, i.e. from effects that may follow from a direct effect within Sweden or abroad. These indirect effects are, through its complex relationships and mutual dependencies, even more difficult to predict in comparison to direct effects and are hitherto not analysed to the same extent as the direct effects. In order to meet challenges posed by climate change on Swedish crisis management analyses are needed that comprehend both direct and indirect effects following climate change. These analyses need to explore different climate scenarios so that various possible futures are considered and include consequences both within and outside Sweden. Additionally, these analyses need to comprehend societal trends and transformation processes besides climate change such as demography, economic development, environmental change, science, technology and political context. A critical moment is to explore how these different areas interact with each other and what impact these interconnected processes have for Sweden and the Swedish crisis management system. Withdrawing from these analyses one can identify what risks that might follow; risks that can lay as a foundation for developing strategies, contingency plans and regulations for how the risks can be handled. Due to the uncertainties regarding the extent of future climate change and their consequences for society as well as for societal development in large scenario analysis is an important method.

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