When Still Waters Fizz: the Fall of the ‘Republican Monarchy’ in Egypt

This study explores Egypt's current security posture. It starts from the notion that the end of the Mubarak era and the transformative change towards democratic governance will lead to a new security role for Egypt in the years to come. It is certain that there is no turning back to a Mubarak-style era of governance. However, some of the geopolitical postures that Mubarak pursued will continue under the current President, Muhammad Morsi, such as Egypt's cooperation with Israel and the United States. In order to understand Egypt's new security situation, this study examines the broader question of whether the region has become more or less stable in terms of security since the transformation. A number of factors are examined: 1.) Egypt's 'soft' and 'hard' power capabilities; 2.) the main political actors inside Egypt; and 3.) Egypt's current geopolitical outlook, based on its main domestic and regional challenges. The way these challenges are addressed will be decisive for its security posture. If the democratic turn goes in the right direction future stability can be expected.