Russian Military Capability in a Ten-Year Perspective - 2013

Authors:

  • Jakob Hedenskog
  • Carolina Vendil Pallin
  • Bengt-Göran Bergstrand
  • Märta Carlsson
  • Per Enerud
  • Tomas Malmlöf
  • Johan Norberg
  • Susanne Oxenstierna
  • Gudrun Persson
  • Roger Roffey
  • Fredrik Westerlund

Publish date: 2013-12-11

Report number: FOI-R--3734--SE

Pages: 158

Written in: English

Keywords:

  • Russia
  • military capability
  • Armed Forces
  • personnel
  • equipment
  • exercise
  • air force
  • air defence
  • naval forces
  • ground forces
  • nuclear weapons
  • procurement
  • strategic direction
  • mobility
  • readiness
  • security policy
  • strategy
  • doctrine
  • concept
  • defence politics
  • Putin
  • Shoigu
  • Serdiukov
  • economy
  • defence
  • spending
  • defence budget
  • state armament programme
  • state defence order
  • corruption
  • defence industry
  • R&D

Abstract

Russian conventional capability has increased and will continue to do so during the coming ten-year period. Increased spending on defence and especially on procurement will mean that units are better trained and better equipped. Russia's military reform appears to enter a phase of consolidation after a couple of years of upheaval, restructuring, downsizing and the introduction of new concepts. During the next few years the curricula for military education and training will undergo further change, exercises will include new elements and more fine-tuning of the organisation will take place. In a short-term perspective, Russia will probably not change its nominal goal of 1 million men in the Armed Forces. In a ten-year perspective, however, demographic and economic realities will probably force the MoD to revise its personnel plans downwards. The future defence budget's share of GDP will probably be between 3.5 and 4 per cent and there is currently a political will to keep it at this level. Many defence industry companies are, however, inefficient and will continue to have problems in spite of this when it comes to delivering the modern weapons that the Armed Forces are demanding. Russia will nevertheless gradually increase its military capability in terms of readiness level, force projection and sustainability. Russia will also continue to develop command and control and gradually procure more modern weapons and equipment.

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