Consequence modelling - literature survey of selected biological agents

Authors:

  • Laila Noppa
  • Jonas Näslund
  • Göran Bucht

Publish date: 2013-12-31

Report number: FOI-R--3781--SE

Pages: 34

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Effect Model
  • biological substances
  • properties
  • viruses
  • bacteria

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to provide basic information for a consequence study after deliberate or accidental release of four classical B-agents. With these results, a better estimation and risk assessment of the consequences for the public after exposure of naturally occurring biological agents, or after deliberate infection by biological weapons. In assessing the effects of exposure to specific biological agents, unique properties such as route of exposure, stability of the infectious agent, infectious dose etc. must be considered. In another dimension, environmental and meteorological data must be taken into account. In order to describe a relationship between these parameters of importance for the effect on people, we aim to introduce a model that takes most of the above parameters into account. This report is limited to the exposure of the agent via inhalation. Vector - borne and secondary infection has not been considered in this study, nor infect via other routes of exposure than inhalation. The biological substances that have been addressed in this report are those that are considered as Category A agents, and historically have been weaponized. These biological agents are smallpox virus and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEE), and the bacteria Bacillus anthracis (causing anthrax) and Francisella tularensis (causing tularemia). These agents have the basic characteristics to be spread by aerosol and have also been part of B - weapon programs in some countries.