Analysis of Wargaming in the Long Term Defence Planning 2013
Publish date: 2014-12-30
Report number: FOI-R--3956--SE
Pages: 31
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Long Term Defence Planning
- LTDP
- method
- long term studies
- operation research
- OR
Abstract
Long Term Defence Planning (LTDP) is conducted by the Swedish Armed Forces on behalf of the government as part of the preparations for "defence policy decision". LTDP aims to identify changes or trends in both the "outside world" and the Swedish Armed Forces. Earlier LTDP have been conducted in perennial cycles related to the periodicity of the government's "defence policy decision". These multi-annual cycles during the 00s has been documented in one of FOI proposed Code of Best Practice. Although the content of the cycles vary those routinely include three phases: broad "environmental analysis", concept design, and force structure design. The time frame is up to about twenty years. This report describes the experience of "gaming operations" in 2013 under the LTDP by comparing it against the Code of Best Practice. For those who are interested in an analysis of the overall approach in LTDP in 2013 cited FOI report R-3955. An important conclusion drawn is that the disruption in the LTDP process at the central level has meant that the long term perspectives were dimmed. This has led to deficiencies of both accurate fore structures and method knowledge about gaming and analysis activities, which in turn made that the LDTP started from a relatively low level. It is therefore important that LDTP (20-year perspective) is conducted continuously at both a central level as with that of the "arena and main study level".