Effect models - final report 2014-2015
Publish date: 2015-12-31
Report number: FOI-R--4215--SE
Pages: 21
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Injury effects
- hazardous substances
- agents
- toxicology
- radioactive substances
- scenario
- deposition
- Dispersion Engine
- behavior analysis
- models
- simulation
Abstract
The medical effects of exposure to dangerous biological, chemical or radiological substances are of great interest and importance in various aspects in our society. The field spans a vast amount of questions and targets a multitude of agents. In many cases it is challenging to conduct experiments and the available data is often limited to fragments of the spectrum of the problems. To improve on existing knowledge and available tools, the Swedish Defence Research Agency runs the interdisciplinary project Effect Models. The project aims at defining models that describe the injury outcome of a wide selection of scenarios. This report presents the progress during the time period 2014-2015 where the main results may be described in condensed form and separated according to their different areas as follows. A generic model has been developed for biological diseases that can be used for any agent. Specifically, agent data for Arenavirus and Coxiella burnetii has been collected and formulated for the model. Parameter values for 16 different toxic chemicals has been found that is directly applicable in a standard toxic load model. In addition, an effort has been undertaken to extract parameter values to the toxic load model depending on the sensitivity of the members of the exposed population. A comprehensive Monte Carlo-simulation system has been developed to quantify the effective radiation dose for the exposure of gamma radiation including both airborne and deposited particles. Moreover, a model of physical population movements in an urban area has been utilized in a study of the impact of exposure models, during a chemical accident, in comparison with a static population. Finally, the project is focused at collecting all models and data into a computational module that will allow integration into external systems. This is a continuous task that during this period has led to a first executable version.