Horizon scanning 2016 - Annual report

Authors:

  • Kia Wiklundh

Publish date: 2017-02-16

Report number: FOI-R--4377--SE

Pages: 19

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • horizon scanning
  • assessment
  • technology watch
  • scientometrics

Abstract

Horizon scanning aims to broadly capture the current research conducted by various research organizations. It embraces scientific advances from both defence research as well as civilian research of technology developments that may have significant implications for future military capabilities within a time horizon of 10 to 25 years. Early discoveries can be crucial for the future ability of the Swedish Armed Forces to timely be able of procure equipment and introduce identified technologies/concepts for military units. The findings could support the strategic planning of the Swedish Armed Forces and the direction of research areas of the Swedish Defence Research Agency. The following report describes the activities carried out during 2016. Furthermore, the plans for the horizon scanning activities 2017 are presented. In 2016, FOI has established the ability to conduct broad, explorative and systematic horizon scanning and to perform assessment of the military potential. To carry out systematic horizon scanning of large amounts of data, a framework is developed, where more and more functionality is automated. The development of the framework and the ability to assess the potential in military applications is a long-term process which will be further developed in the coming years. The methods will evolve as new horizon scannings are conducted and experiences are drawn. In 2016, the subject for horizon scanning has been Chinese scientific literature in the field of urban warfare. The project also involves international co-operation through a trilateral cooperation with Canada and the Netherlands. By this cooperation, Sweden has been given access to other countries' results.