A wider perspective on CBRN related threats
Publish date: 2019-10-14
Report number: FOI-R--4781--SE
Pages: 50
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- CBRN
- total defence
- hybrid threats
- medical threats
- technological development
- gray zone
- disturbed environment
- critical infrastructure
- cyber
- disinformation
- resilience
Abstract
This report aims to identify some trends regarding the wider context of societal and security challenges, with potential relevance for the identified CBRN threat. National defence as well as civil crisis preparedness capabilities must be able to handle antagonistic incidents as well as naturally caused events, gray zone situations and "disturbed environments". Worst case, all of the above, simultaneously. Strong interdependencies between the various sectors of society as well as vulnerabilities exist. Some challenges identified in recent years are vulnerabilities to energy breakdowns and a growing reliance on Internet of Things (IoT). There is presently no sector in society that would function well if the computer systems were shut down more than temporarily. The above mentioned interdependencies increases the risk of making Sweden less robust as a society, and more vulnerable to disruptions than mechanized societies with more manual routines. The resumed total defence planning has emerged as a result of the increasingly strained security environment, where terms such as gray zone, asymmetric threats and hybrid warfare are used more frequently. Domestic grown, as well as foreign terrorism, increased military activities near Sweden and cyberattacks on critical infrastructure are increasing. In addition, a major CBR or N event is assessed to be one of the most pressing challenge to modern society, where e.g. physical protection, medical countermeasures, crises management and risk communication needs to function seamlessly and simultaneously. In summary, Sweden is preparing for the possibility of increasingly complex threat scenarios, where disinformation and uncertainty may be additional factors. In this context, the most pressing challenge may be to be able to identify weak signals and create indicators for detecting those. An overarching challenge is the lack of a function that embraces the whole spectrum of possible scenarios as well as the fact that too often, threat analysis and protection planning takes place in stovepipes with little interaction. The extent to which the different forms of threats, which may occur simultaneously in a hybrid threat context, impact on each other needs to be further investigated. Cascade effects caused by e.g. CBRN events caused by cyberattacks, or how disinformation campaigns have been launched, and may be used, to reinforce or even design a CBRN threat, are areas worth further attention.