Horison scanning 2018

Authors:

  • Christina Grönwall

Publish date: 2019-12-13

Report number: FOI-R--4837--SE

Pages: 18

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Technology foresight
  • horizon scanning
  • literature study
  • research front

Abstract

This report provides a summary of horizon scanning activities performed by FOI in 2018. The aim of this activity is to identify research advances that may be particularly relevant for the Swedish armed forces, and to increase FOI's overall knowledge of new technologies. For each topic, a literature survey was conducted to evaluate its status and relevance. A brief description of the studies carried out in 2018 is given below. The last two decades the Swedish Armed Forces has been operating in a reduced economy, but this has recently changed into the opposite. A characteristic feature for a growing economy is that the various parts of the organization cannot grow at the same pace due to limited resources. FOI has studied Bottlenecks and thresholds in production increase for an organically growing organization and an analytical framework is proposed for studying these problems. A study concerning sensors for detection and tracking of ground vehicles was performed. The study showed that new three axis geophones and magnetometers will give new opportunities to track ground vehicles, especially in combination with new algorithms. Generation of realistic simulated sensor data: Machine learning, an important subfield of artificial intelligence (AI), requires large amounts of training data. Data collection and preparation is often a laborious, expensive, and, in some cases, an impossible task. One possible solution is to use simulated data. Unfortunately, algorithms trained on simulated data generally have significantly worse performance than if trained on real data. The reason is that it is very difficult to capture all relevant aspects of reality in simulations. Recently, great progress has been made in the fields domain adaptation and domain translation, which, among other things, has made possible generation of more realistic and diverse simulated sensor data. The cellular standard 5G includes techniques of relevance for military applications. Compared to 3G and 4G, 5G has the potential to provide higher capacity, more robust communication and to increase the number of simultaneous users. In general 5G is foreseen to increase adaptivity, increase flexibility and provide means for more types of communication compared to earlier standards. Further, 5G provides means to redundancy and to increase the robustness to electronic warfare. At an IT attack, the software weaknesses are exploited. FOI has studied the current research on automatic IT attack generation. The technique can be used both as support during software development, to create software that is harder to attack, and as a tool for attacking software fast and effectively. Regardless of the perspective, there are perspectives of IT security that need to be investigated thoroughly in this context. In many situations it is important to determine if microorganisms are alive, and may be hazardous, or if they are dead. In the study A Matter of Life and Death, FOI reviewed molecular methods used to determine if bacteria, viruses and protozoa are alive or dead. To summarize, no current molecular techniques have the ability to reliably show that microorganisms are dead while a few techniques under certain circumstances can show that organisms are alive. However, absence of a signal that indicates living organisms does not mean that all organisms are dead. Therefore, the conclusion is that no molecular technique existing today can be used to rule out the risk of infection.