Defence Economic Outlook 2020 - An Assessment of the Global Power Balance 2010-2030

Authors:

  • Per Olsson
  • Alma Dahl
  • Tobias Junerfält

Publish date: 2020-12-17

Report number: FOI-R--5048--SE

Pages: 86

Written in: English

Keywords:

  • Power balance
  • military expenditure
  • economy
  • equipment

Abstract

The global military and economic power balance has changed significantly during the past decade. While the US and its European allies still possess a clear military advantage, major non-Western powers such as China and Russia have steadily narrowed this gap. The past decade, China's share of global military spending as well as its share of the world economy has increased considerably. In recent years, the US and several European countries have refocused their attention towards great power rivalry and increased their military spending. This may slow, but is unlikely to reverse, the observed trends of the past decade. It is the assessment of this study that the US will continue to enjoy an overall military advantage in 2030. However, the Chinese economy is likely to become the world's largest, and the Chinese navy will likely outnumber its US counterpart, around the same time. Continued growth of European military expenditure is far from certain, however, the Eurozone's economic advantage over Russia seems set to increase. Nevertheless, Russia is likely to retain and even strengthen its military capabilities. These assessments are not predetermined, nor are they indisputable. They are, however, based on detailed data as well as clearly defined and motivated assumptions.