Methodology for the description of future adversaries

Authors:

  • Pär Gustafsson Kurki

Publish date: 2021-02-05

Report number: FOI-R--5095--SE

Pages: 77

Written in: Swedish

Keywords:

  • Adversaries; Economic trends; Method; Military capability; Military trends; Russia; Societal trends; Technological trends

Abstract

This report aims to present a pilot study on how to support defence planning, in particular, concerning the analysis of possible adversaries. The pilot study aims to answer the following question: How is it possible to overcome the gap between historical data, what we know about an adversary's capabilities today, and the future capabilities, which we, per definition, cannot have data about? The pilot study answers the question by developing a method for the analysis of future adversaries' military capabilities. Military capability consists of things, such as tanks, planes, ships and drones, and people, primarily soldiers and officers. In order to predict what this complex puzzle will look like at a specific point in time, it is advisable to begin with an investigation and description of the capacity to produce the capability, rather than describing the capability itself. The method that is developed in the pilot study suggests the following questions to the analyst: What do the adversary's preconditions for a successful creation of military capability look like? This questions is answered through an investigation of three background factors: Society, Economics, and Technology. In the next step, this analysis enables the assessment of the adversary's future military capability. However, it's important to remember that the assessment becomes less and less precise the further into the future it gets. To achieve the aims, the report has two parts. The first part develops a generic method for the description of adversaries. The second part uses the method to examine the case of Russia from today to 2045. A very important aspect of the pilot study is that it encourages structured and dynamic thinking about the future military capability of an adversary.