A utility-focused process for enhancing the use of horizon scanning in defence research
Publish date: 2021-09-09
Report number: FOI-R--5149--SE
Pages: 37
Written in: English
Keywords:
- : horizon scanning
- foresight
- process
- utility
- technology foresight
- defence
- science and technology
- assessment
Abstract
Horizon scanning is a method to detect signals and early signs indicating future changes relevant to an organization. Horizon scanning studies information outside and beyond current business. The purpose is either to provide information on specific issues or to explore topics in a wider context. It makes visible unfamiliar and new information. A utility focused process for horizon scanning is proposed. It is based on peerreviewed publications on horizon scanning theory, use and processes, as well as own experiences and the requirement to support multi-agency work. The process consists of four steps: 1) Problem statement and design, 2) Scanning, 3) Analysis and interpretation, and 4) Communication of results. The process with its utility focused principles aim to meet some of the challenges with horizon scanning frequently reported in the literature and also to enhance obtaining relevant and useful output. The utility focused principles guide the performance of the horizon scanning activity and improve the utility of the result. Engagement of stakeholders are beneficial to the outcome of the process. The process can be used in various types of horizon scanning activities and it therefore supports adaption to specific needs and conditions of an activity.