A tool to support assessments of state biological weapons programs
Publish date: 2023-03-31
Report number: FOI-R--5440--SE
Pages: 46
Written in: Swedish
Keywords:
- Horizon scanning
- B-weapons program
- state actor
- indicator
- assessment tool
Abstract
A systematic information acquisition of states' capabilities and intentions is crucial in order to be able to assess their potential biological weapons programs. FOI has produced a proposal for an assessment tool with the aim of supporting and streamlining this type of assessment. The tool consists of indicators whose main purpose is to assess and characterize a current situation and to follow or predict significant changes. An important part in assessing the indicators is being able to report the quality and confidence of the sources in a clear and transparent way, and has thus been included in the tool. The indicators have been categorized in thematic groups to structure the work and to enable the subsequent visualization of the results. The systematic analysis provides the opportunity for follow-up studies over time as well as for comparative studies of two or more states at any given time. The visualization is an important part of the tool and a number of different alternatives are presented in the report. Which type of visualization is the most suitable is determined based on the user's specific needs. This assessment tool is not static with respect to the selected indicators, but these should be evaluated and subsequently continuously updated in order to maintain the tool's full functionality over time.